Prepare for the Least Watchable NBA Finals
Small markets and fading superstars created the perfect storm for a ratings disaster
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This year's potential Thunder vs. Pacers Finals would represent the smallest combined TV market matchup in at least 30 years, and the timing couldn't be worse for league optics.
The Historical Context
Looking at past small-market Finals, there's always been a saving grace:
2012: Heat vs. Thunder featured LeBron's first title against KD (2nd smallest market combo)
2007: Spurs swept young LeBron's Cavs (3rd smallest market combo)
Both had transcendent superstars to drive viewership.
What Makes This Different
The Thunder are historically dominant, posting a +12.9 point differential that ranks among all-time greats, such as the 1996 Bulls and 2017 Warriors. But they lack the off-court star power that traditionally drives Finals ratings.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be the MVP, but he hasn't reached the mainstream appeal level needed to overcome small-market limitations.
The NBA’s Deeper Stardom Crisis
The NBA finds itself in an unprecedented period of transition. Its biggest historical draws (LeBron, Steph, KD) remain the league's most marketable stars, but they're clearly on the decline. Meanwhile, the four best players in the league today (Jokic, Giannis, SGA, Luka) are all international talents who are still developing their drawing power in the American market. This creates a unique gulf in American-born superstardom that the league has never experienced before, making small-market Finals matchups even more challenging from a ratings perspective.
The Business Reality
The NBA already secured this year's TV revenue, but these ratings will directly impact future broadcast deals worth billions. With the Thunder potentially steamrolling to a championship, we might see a historically great team deliver historically low viewership.
The chart below shows the 10 smallest market Finals matchups. Notice how the potential 2025 matchup would shatter the previous record.
The Bigger Picture
Sometimes the best basketball stories come from unexpected places. The Thunder's dominance is genuinely impressive, joining an elite group of teams with 68+ wins and historic point differentials alongside the 1970-71 Bucks, the 1971-72 Lakers, the 1995-96 Bulls, and the 2016-17 Warriors.
But in the TV business, David vs. Goliath doesn't always translate to dollars. The NBA has built its brand on star power and major market appeal. When both are absent simultaneously, even the most compelling basketball can struggle to capture mainstream attention.
This Finals matchup represents more than just a ratings challenge. It's a stress test of whether elite basketball can overcome the structural realities of American sports media consumption in an era of declining traditional viewership and fragmenting attention spans.
What do you think? Can transcendent basketball performance alone drive viewership, or does the NBA need its stars and big markets to remain culturally relevant?
Halli read your piece. Had something to say :)