What I Predicted Right About 2023

I was spot on about career trends and labor markets, and their effects on cities.

Twelve months ago, I made a bunch of predictions about 2023. In the spirit of accountability, let’s see what I got right…

(Click here to read my recent review of the 2023 predictions that I got wrong.)

✅ Prediction #4: City Centers Start to Get More Residential

Only a third of office workers are coming back to the office. Many cities now have too much office space. The best, and inevitable, course of action is to reimagine and rezone much of this excess office space for residential use.

...In 2023, [a] “noticeable increase” [in commercial office to multi-family housing conversions] will begin.

10 Predictions for 2023: No. 4 - City Centers Start to Get More Residential

I nailed this one. According to CBRE:

CBRE analyzed the number of office conversions in major U.S. cities since 2016 and found nearly 100 projects are expected to be completed this year. This is a sharp increase from the annual average of 41 completed from 2016 to 2022.

Across 40 CBRE-tracked markets in the U.S., 60 million sq. ft. of office conversions are planned or in progress, comprising 1.4% of the total U.S. office inventory, up from 1.2% in last year’s fourth quarter.

✅ Prediction #7: More Shareholder Activism & Big Tech Targets

I predict we’ll see more of this in 2023 -- more activist shareholder campaigns with more high-profile technology companies in their crosshairs. Cheap stocks, overstaffed companies, and a focus on cost-cutting will drive record-high investor activism in the tech sector.

10 Predictions for 2023: No. 7 - More Shareholder Activism & Big Tech Targets

Nailed it. Shareholder activism was up in 2023, though companies below $300 million in market cap — not large, high-profile companies — were the primary targets.

According to Bloomberg, as of Q3, activist campaigns were on pace to hit the highest level since they began tracking activism in 2017. 

✅ Prediction #8: Career Diversification Goes Mainstream

...We’ll see a dramatic increase in people explicitly “diversifying” their careers. This means more workers than ever will seek:

✅ Multiple sources of income

✅ Multiple personal and professional brands 

✅ Multiple organizational affiliations

✅ More side hustles

✅ Multiple “main hustles”

10 Predictions for 2023: No. 8 - Career Diversification Goes Mainstream

I’ll take the win here. As I said in the prediction, this trend is hard to track. It has been difficult to know if I was right, especially without relying on anecdotes, which are plentiful. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, “overemployment” or people working more than one job, was down in 2023. Yet, this broad measure of overemployment includes all workers, not the high-leverage, knowledge workers I’m talking about.

The prevalence of side hustles, the most reliably trackable of this “career diversification” list, increased significantly in 2023. The number of adults in the U.S. with side hustles was up sharply -- 39% in 2023 vs 31% in 2022 -- according to survey data from Bankrate.

✅ Prediction #9: Knowledge-Worker Leverage Backslides

I predict that in 2023, workers will temporarily lose some leverage as an economic slowdown, real or perceived, slows white-collar hiring and allows corporations to reclaim some lost ground.

For workers in tech, finance, and other high-margin services businesses, those best positioned to capitalize on the long-term power shift, 2023 will see less hiring, slowed compensation growth or even declines, and some clawbacks on the perks of the last few years. 

10 Predictions for 2023: No. 9 - Knowledge-Worker Leverage Backslides in 2023

I was right. The labor market pendulum swung back toward employers in 2023 after the 2021-2022 post-pandemic power shift toward workers. This played out most significantly in layoffs, hiring, and slowed compensation growth.

The more than 260,000 tech layoffs in 2023 was a nearly 59% increase from 2022, according to layoffs.fyi.

According to LinkedIn, 2023 hiring is down globally from 2022 as of Q3.

In the U.S., growth in compensation and benefits slowed from 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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What I Predicted Wrong About 2023